Can you use the wisdom of crowds in football?
The wisdom of crowds refers to the idea that large groups of diverse people are smarter than individual experts. The concept was popularized by James Surowiecki and differs from crowdsourcing by aggregating all opinions into one applicable output instead of evaluating ideas separately. One of the most common applications is the prediction market where luck and uncertainty are significantly involved.
An extreme example of the use of the wisdom of crowds and also crowdsourcing is TC Freisenbruch, a fully digitized Sunday League club in Western Germany. The club is entirely managed by its members from line-up, tactics and ticket prices to investments such as player transfers. The approach was implemented at a time when the club was on the brink of a sporting and financial collapse.
In addition to a promotion in 2016/17, the project has attracted attention by several new sponsors and particularly by the media. This even applies to the Chinese media which led to Freisenbruch’s participation at the ISPO 2019 in Beijing. Currently, the club counts more than 700 monthly paying (5 Euro) members.
In professional clubs, it’s obviously not feasible to implement such a project. But why not choose a few elements of this approach and use other people’s knowledge?
As done by TC Freisenbruch, a club could, for example, use crowdsourcing for idea collaboration, also in order to increase fan engagement and further develop their brand. Why not incorporate fans in the decision about the design of the new kit for next season? Why not ask fans for proposals on the next investment of the club’s foundation or its strategy in general? Why not ask fans about new features for a better stadium experience?
While many complain that football is distancing itself from the fans and while the Generation Z is showing less and less interest in professional football, this approach could present an appealing way of engagement. And in turn, more fan engagement and better brand perception lead to higher attractiveness for new sponsors and thus more money.
Think of a sports context. Why not allow fans to register and submit interesting set-piece or throw-in routines they observed? In 2000, the CEO of US Gold Corporation, Rob McEwen, asked for advice on mining for gold. The participants identified 110 potential sites for mining, half of which were new to the company. In 2001, the profits increased from 2 to 52 million dollars. Similarly, Dell worked with students on their Social Innovation Challenge.
Perhaps, the wisdom of crowds could work in recruitment when it comes to finding new players or making final decisions. Even though it sounds counterintuitive at first glance, incorporating the opinion of outsiders - whether amateurs (fans, hobby analysts) or professionals from other branches - might help as so-called experts sometimes tend to come to conclusions too quickly, struggling to adjust their opinions if new information come up. Transfermarkt.com, for example, calculates market values based on a discussion between users and experts in a forum led by a moderator.
Either way, the wisdom of crowds is generally crucial when it comes to the compilation of decision-makers and the aggregation of knowledge. Most groups making transfer decisions in football are probably relatively homogeneous. Various research, however, suggests the opposite: a diverse group with varied backgrounds and experiences. Why should that be any different in football?
Crowdsourcing and the wisdom of crowds-concept are not new and present some interesting use cases. Why not start with a pilot project to see what it can do? What is the worst that could happen?